Correlato:Caldo-Immersione Zincato Acciaio Tubi,,Zincato Acciaio Bobina
I. Introduzione
Back in March 2018, Trump proposed Section 232 after taking office, announcing a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum, but NAFTA partners Canada and Mexico were exempted. In July 2024, the Biden administration's Section 301 announced an additional 10% tariff on steel and aluminum products imported from Mexico originating from China, and a comprehensive export tax rate of 35% to the United States. Stipulates that steel products from Mexico will face a 25% tariff unless they are smelted and cast in Mexico, Canada or the United States, and that aluminum products from Mexico, which must not contain primary aluminum smelted or cast in China, Russia, Belarus or Iran, will face a 10% tariff. The U.S. said the move was to close a loophole that the previous administration had failed to address, preventing countries like China from exporting steel and aluminum products to the U.S. through Mexico to circumvent tariffs. Since then, China's direct steel exports to the United States have fallen from 3.5 million tons in 2018 to 890,000 tons in 2024. On Feb. 10, Trump said he would announce a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from all countries, but did not announce when the tariffs would take effect. This marks the imposition of a 60% tariff on Chinese steel varieties and the escalation of trade barriers.
2. Impatto sulla Cina % 27 s acciaio esportazione commercio
L'impatto delle esportazioni dirette verso Cina è minore il mercato dello Medio Oriente è la principale destinazione delle esportazioni
In recent years, although China's steel export volume has fluctuated, it has generally remained at a high level. In December 2024, the export volume of steel was 9.73 million tons, an increase of 4.85% month-on-month and 25.9% year-on-year. From January to December, the cumulative export was 110.72 million tons, an increase of 22.7% year-on-year. This is an all-time high since 2016. It can be seen that Southeast Asian countries, such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, etc., are important export destinations for Chinese steel. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other Middle Eastern countries have seen a significant increase in imports to China. However, China's share of exports to North America is almost negligible. It is worth noting that Brazil and Mexico have increased their share of imports to China in recent years, with Mexico accounting for more than 10% of China's exports. Therefore, it is expected that the impact on China's direct exports to the United States will not be great, but it may increase tariffs on the main downstream steel products from China, such as construction machinery, household appliances, new energy vehicles and other products.
The increase in the volume of 're-export' trade Tariff policy may put pressure on Japan, South Korea and Vietnam.Since 2018, the high tariffs imposed by the United States on China have given rise to the growth of 're-export' trade, taking Mexico as an example, the steel trade between the United States and Mexico accounts for 35% of the total NAFTA, and Mexico's steel exports to the United States have also surged by more than 40% in 2024, of which more than 60% have re-export 'suspected' steel, at the same time, China's largest steel trading partner this year, Vietnam, exports to the United States surged by 143.4% in 2023, Some of this is achieved through re-export transactions. It is reported that after the goods arrive in Vietnam, customs clearance, container replacement and other operations in the local bonded area, and apply for Vietnam's certificate of origin, and then export to the United States, data show that China's steel exports to the United States tax is 10:1 than Vietnam, so it will be profitable to re-export in Vietnam. This move by the United States will weaken the competitive advantage of global steel products in the U.S. market, so as to promote domestic enterprises to purchase domestic steel products, and at the same time enable the United States to eliminate its dependence on high-end production lines in Japan and South Korea and return to the U.S. market.
On the other hand, the apparent steel consumption of the United States in 2024 will be 135 million tons, and it is expected to be 137 million tons in 2025, but the United States crude steel output will be 79.5 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%. However, in the coming period, it is expected that more countries will launch anti-dumping reviews against China to limit the number of Chinese products entering their own countries. In 2024, the number of cases will exceed 20, covering the world, mainly Vietnam, Brazil, the European Union, South Africa, etc., and most of the categories involved are plates. However, it is certain that the development of the Middle East in the next ten years will look at the Middle East, and the Middle East (mainly the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia) currently has less anti-dumping review of China's exports, so the Middle East will still be the main export market in 2025, especially Saudi Arabia, and the increase will be more obvious.
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